My Official E3 Prediction

Posted by on Thursday, May 26, 2011 · 4 Comments 

Hi Dear Reader,

I have supernatural powers. It’s a truth I’ve long grappled with, but at last have come to accept. The future is my plaything, and I can peer into it with reckless abandon. Last year at E3, I made several predictions against the grain of common knowledge, and each came true: that “Metroid: Other M” was going to disappoint, that “Assassins Creed: Brotherhood” was amazing, and the Playstation Move was going to have little impact on anything. This year, I’m warming up my predictor machine, and I’ve got one ready before we even arrive on the show floor. Are you ready for this?

Valve is going to announce something about “Half-Life.”

I'm so lonely

Now, Valve has personally told me several times they aren’t attending, and I don’t believe them for one second. They’ll be there, Dear Reader; they’re just trying to surprise as much as possible. And whatever their announcement, it’s going to be in the Gordon Freeman variety. Will it be the long-delayed “Episode 3,” or an entirely new “Half Life” experience? I tend to think the former, but I’m not saying the latter is impossible. In either case, something is coming. When it happens, you heard it here first.

-AA

i meant to do that

Categories: Articles · Tags:

  • http://padinga.com/members/maul42/ Maul

    Not that I doubt your precognitive abilities, but what possible business reason could they have for not announcing their presence at E3?

    “Hey press! Don’t schedule any time to see us or our products! Don’t look for us!” Its not like a surprise booth showing us would make us stick around more.
    you’re dealing with the press, not a bunch of commercial buyers drooling over hidden chase events.

  • http://padinga.com/members/laughingfish/ Andrew Allen

    A) They’ve done it before.

    B) Surprises at E3 echo into the common public. The more surprised the journalists are, the more surprised everyone else is.

    C) They’re Valve. They don’t NEED press to schedule time to see their product. They have such a massive amount of visibility off the bat, with IPs so well-established, that they could refuse to take even a single interview and still get more coverage than most other things on the show floor.

    D) Speak for yourself. A surprise booth would make ME stick around more.

  • http://padinga.com/members/maul42/ Maul

    A) I assume you’re talking about last year when they did this? But they didn’t have a booth then, either, so that part wasn’t a lie. They just piggy-backed on Sony’s press conference and then booked it out of there. This might happen, but that’s as far as their presence will go.

    B) No, they really don’t. If Valve says they aren’t going to be there, and then IGN was like “Hey, guess what, they were!” That would buy absolutely no cool points with anybody. That’s crap marketing. That’s a bunch of die-hard fans not getting online and looking for news, is what that is.

    C) But they fact that they’re popular is exactly why they WOULD schedule booth times. All the big guns do, because otherwise they get swamped. As others have said, right now Valve’s IPs are so big, they actually just don’t need to be at E3 at all. Half-Life would sell itself.

    D) You, sir, are a sucker. Surprise booth? I’m rolling my eyes at that already, and its not even come to fruition. I would stick around the same amount of time, if not less for sheer annoyance at asinine attention ploys on behalf of the company.

    Time shall tell, dear double-A

  • http://padinga.com/members/laughingfish/ Andrew Allen

    A) Last year is an example, but it’s certainly not the only one. We chatted with Chad before the Game Show about this, Valve has a way of being unpredictable. I’m not saying they won’t piggy-back, but I AM saying that just because they don’t book a booth doesn’t mean they aren’t there.

    I think we’re both right on that one. My only point is that just because they say they’re not coming, doesn’t mean they won’t grab the spotlight for themselves. In fact, I think saying they WON’T be there adds to the excitement if they ARE. By “be there” I just mean they’ll make an announcement, or show something, it doesn’t mean they’re on the floor giving demos. You seem hung up on the booth aspect, which is really not my point. My point is, we’ll hear from them.

    B) Yes, they really do. Momentum is everything. The dozens of websites and blogs covering E3 events have to make choices about what they cover more or less, and a “shocking revelation” often beats a game they already knew about, provided both releases are on the same basic popularity level beforehand. If you surprise people, you get more attention; it’s human nature. In other words, if Valve wants to crush Modern Warfare 3 and steal all the coverage, this is how they could do it.

    And of course they want to crush MW3. Everyone gets asked “what was your favorite part of E3,” and most people only give one answer. And let’s face it, people aren’t rigorously analytical about that decision, they make it from an emotional point of view. If Valve wants to be number one, surprise helps them achieve the emotional impact they want.

    C) You’re right, Half Life COULD sell itself. So could Portal, and so could Left 4 Dead (albeit to lesser degrees, but it’s still true). But you’re wrong when you say “they don’t have to be there.” A company on their level never stops reaching for something higher. That’s why Coke and Apple still spend hundreds of millions on marketing every year, even though their market saturation is overwhelming.

    So yes, Half Life could sell itself, but just sitting back and not competing for attention would be inviting someone else to push hard and steal your thunder. It’s not like there couldn’t be another Valve out there, waiting to spring on the market and take Gabe Newell’s crown. A company in their position doesn’t just chill, they get out there and play to win, every time.

    D) Well, that’s cool, maybe it wouldn’t affect you. Surprises are exciting, and I think a lot of people agree with me on that.

    Indeed. We shall see.